Extensive NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office monitoring and ESA risk assessments have identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96% implied probability of “No.” Historical fireball data from JPL’s CNEOS repository show such events occur roughly once every 10–20 years on average, with only isolated precedents like the 173-kt Bering Sea bolide; current catalogs confirm no qualifying threats through year-end. While small, untracked meter-scale objects could theoretically deliver this energy, their low annual probability and improving detection rates limit realistic upside scenarios for a “Yes” resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% โอกาส
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Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office monitoring and ESA risk assessments have identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96% implied probability of “No.” Historical fireball data from JPL’s CNEOS repository show such events occur roughly once every 10–20 years on average, with only isolated precedents like the 173-kt Bering Sea bolide; current catalogs confirm no qualifying threats through year-end. While small, untracked meter-scale objects could theoretically deliver this energy, their low annual probability and improving detection rates limit realistic upside scenarios for a “Yes” resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,955วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office monitoring and ESA risk assessments have identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96% implied probability of “No.” Historical fireball data from JPL’s CNEOS repository show such events occur roughly once every 10–20 years on average, with only isolated precedents like the 173-kt Bering Sea bolide; current catalogs confirm no qualifying threats through year-end. While small, untracked meter-scale objects could theoretically deliver this energy, their low annual probability and improving detection rates limit realistic upside scenarios for a “Yes” resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,955วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office monitoring and ESA risk assessments have identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96% implied probability of “No.” Historical fireball data from JPL’s CNEOS repository show such events occur roughly once every 10–20 years on average, with only isolated precedents like the 173-kt Bering Sea bolide; current catalogs confirm no qualifying threats through year-end. While small, untracked meter-scale objects could theoretically deliver this energy, their low annual probability and improving detection rates limit realistic upside scenarios for a “Yes” resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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