NASA and ESA surveys through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, combined with Sentry monitoring have ruled out any known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. This aligns with historical bolide records indicating such airbursts occur only once every few centuries on average. An early-2026 uptick in smaller fireballs produced only sub-threshold events. Ongoing optical-radar scans and Scout updates through year-end will further constrain residual risk from undiscovered objects, though new detections or orbital revisions remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA surveys through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, combined with Sentry monitoring have ruled out any known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. This aligns with historical bolide records indicating such airbursts occur only once every few centuries on average. An early-2026 uptick in smaller fireballs produced only sub-threshold events. Ongoing optical-radar scans and Scout updates through year-end will further constrain residual risk from undiscovered objects, though new detections or orbital revisions remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,871วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA surveys through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, combined with Sentry monitoring have ruled out any known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. This aligns with historical bolide records indicating such airbursts occur only once every few centuries on average. An early-2026 uptick in smaller fireballs produced only sub-threshold events. Ongoing optical-radar scans and Scout updates through year-end will further constrain residual risk from undiscovered objects, though new detections or orbital revisions remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,871วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA and ESA surveys through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, combined with Sentry monitoring have ruled out any known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, anchoring the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. This aligns with historical bolide records indicating such airbursts occur only once every few centuries on average. An early-2026 uptick in smaller fireballs produced only sub-threshold events. Ongoing optical-radar scans and Scout updates through year-end will further constrain residual risk from undiscovered objects, though new detections or orbital revisions remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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