No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and NASA’s planetary defense surveys have ruled out credible threats through at least the next decade. Continuous monitoring by radar, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys makes undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 98.7 % “No” price. Historical impact rates for this energy range—roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years—further support the low odds. The only realistic remaining variables are an extremely faint, long-period comet discovered at the last moment or a post-detection orbit revision, both of which would still face intense scrutiny before any market resolution change.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% โอกาส
$116,329 ปริมาณ
$116,329 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1% โอกาส
$116,329 ปริมาณ
$116,329 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and NASA’s planetary defense surveys have ruled out credible threats through at least the next decade. Continuous monitoring by radar, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys makes undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 98.7 % “No” price. Historical impact rates for this energy range—roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years—further support the low odds. The only realistic remaining variables are an extremely faint, long-period comet discovered at the last moment or a post-detection orbit revision, both of which would still face intense scrutiny before any market resolution change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$116,329วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and NASA’s planetary defense surveys have ruled out credible threats through at least the next decade. Continuous monitoring by radar, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys makes undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 98.7 % “No” price. Historical impact rates for this energy range—roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years—further support the low odds. The only realistic remaining variables are an extremely faint, long-period comet discovered at the last moment or a post-detection orbit revision, both of which would still face intense scrutiny before any market resolution change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$116,329วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and NASA’s planetary defense surveys have ruled out credible threats through at least the next decade. Continuous monitoring by radar, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys makes undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 98.7 % “No” price. Historical impact rates for this energy range—roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years—further support the low odds. The only realistic remaining variables are an extremely faint, long-period comet discovered at the last moment or a post-detection orbit revision, both of which would still face intense scrutiny before any market resolution change.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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