NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and global surveys show no known asteroid on a collision trajectory capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy—roughly a 20–50 m object—in the remainder of 2026, with cumulative impact odds well below 1 %. Recent close approaches, including multiple 2026 flybys tracked by radar and optical networks, have all passed harmlessly at lunar distances or greater. Undiscovered small bodies or long-period comets remain theoretically possible but are rendered improbable by improving survey completeness and short remaining time window; any such event would require an object evading detection until final approach. Trader consensus at 95 %+ “No” therefore reflects both verified orbital data and the low baseline frequency of such impacts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and global surveys show no known asteroid on a collision trajectory capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy—roughly a 20–50 m object—in the remainder of 2026, with cumulative impact odds well below 1 %. Recent close approaches, including multiple 2026 flybys tracked by radar and optical networks, have all passed harmlessly at lunar distances or greater. Undiscovered small bodies or long-period comets remain theoretically possible but are rendered improbable by improving survey completeness and short remaining time window; any such event would require an object evading detection until final approach. Trader consensus at 95 %+ “No” therefore reflects both verified orbital data and the low baseline frequency of such impacts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,835วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and global surveys show no known asteroid on a collision trajectory capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy—roughly a 20–50 m object—in the remainder of 2026, with cumulative impact odds well below 1 %. Recent close approaches, including multiple 2026 flybys tracked by radar and optical networks, have all passed harmlessly at lunar distances or greater. Undiscovered small bodies or long-period comets remain theoretically possible but are rendered improbable by improving survey completeness and short remaining time window; any such event would require an object evading detection until final approach. Trader consensus at 95 %+ “No” therefore reflects both verified orbital data and the low baseline frequency of such impacts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,835วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and global surveys show no known asteroid on a collision trajectory capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy—roughly a 20–50 m object—in the remainder of 2026, with cumulative impact odds well below 1 %. Recent close approaches, including multiple 2026 flybys tracked by radar and optical networks, have all passed harmlessly at lunar distances or greater. Undiscovered small bodies or long-period comets remain theoretically possible but are rendered improbable by improving survey completeness and short remaining time window; any such event would require an object evading detection until final approach. Trader consensus at 95 %+ “No” therefore reflects both verified orbital data and the low baseline frequency of such impacts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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