Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking at levels projecting the month as the third-hottest April on record, behind record-setting 2024 and runner-up 2025, fueling the 81% trader consensus for this outcome. Elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent anthropogenic warming trends support top-three positioning, though ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—limit upside for surpassing prior El Niño-influenced peaks. March 2026 ranked fourth-warmest overall, underscoring the streak, but inherent forecast uncertainty remains with 13 days left; final Copernicus and NOAA bulletins expected early May will confirm rankings against historical baselines like the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 81%
2nd hottest 14%
1st hottest 4.3%
4th or lower 2.6%
$78,866 ปริมาณ
$78,866 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
1st hottest
4%
2nd hottest
14%
3rd hottest
81%
4th or lower
3%
3rd hottest 81%
2nd hottest 14%
1st hottest 4.3%
4th or lower 2.6%
$78,866 ปริมาณ
$78,866 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
1st hottest
$7,979 ปริมาณ
4%
2nd hottest
$21,573 ปริมาณ
14%
3rd hottest
$17,388 ปริมาณ
81%
4th or lower
$31,925 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking at levels projecting the month as the third-hottest April on record, behind record-setting 2024 and runner-up 2025, fueling the 81% trader consensus for this outcome. Elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent anthropogenic warming trends support top-three positioning, though ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—limit upside for surpassing prior El Niño-influenced peaks. March 2026 ranked fourth-warmest overall, underscoring the streak, but inherent forecast uncertainty remains with 13 days left; final Copernicus and NOAA bulletins expected early May will confirm rankings against historical baselines like the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,866วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking at levels projecting the month as the third-hottest April on record, behind record-setting 2024 and runner-up 2025, fueling the 81% trader consensus for this outcome. Elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent anthropogenic warming trends support top-three positioning, though ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—limit upside for surpassing prior El Niño-influenced peaks. March 2026 ranked fourth-warmest overall, underscoring the streak, but inherent forecast uncertainty remains with 13 days left; final Copernicus and NOAA bulletins expected early May will confirm rankings against historical baselines like the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,866วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking at levels projecting the month as the third-hottest April on record, behind record-setting 2024 and runner-up 2025, fueling the 81% trader consensus for this outcome. Elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent anthropogenic warming trends support top-three positioning, though ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—limit upside for surpassing prior El Niño-influenced peaks. March 2026 ranked fourth-warmest overall, underscoring the streak, but inherent forecast uncertainty remains with 13 days left; final Copernicus and NOAA bulletins expected early May will confirm rankings against historical baselines like the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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