Trader consensus heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 71.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early Trump endorsement in January and dominant Q1 2026 fundraising of $742,000—outpacing rivals and even Democratic candidates combined—as reported this week. The open seat, vacated by incumbent David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, has drawn a crowded field, but Feely's ballot qualification in March and high-profile events bolster his frontrunner status. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, at 9.5% after resigning in February to campaign full-time, trails without Trump backing, while John Trobough's 7.3% reflects local endorsements like Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell's. Absent public polls, traders weigh endorsements, cash, and name recognition amid Arizona's competitive midterm landscape.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJay Feely 71%
Joseph Chaplik 9.0%
John Trobough 7.3%
Todd Graham 5.5%
$380,497 ปริมาณ
$380,497 ปริมาณ
Jay Feely
71%
Joseph Chaplik
9%
John Trobough
7%
Todd Graham
5%
Gina Swoboda
3%
Mark Brnovich
1%
Kari Lake
1%
Jason Duey
6%
Matt Gress
1%
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
1%
Kaitlin Purrington
1%
Derrick Gallego
<1%
Paul Reevs
<1%
Brandon Sowers
<1%
Jay Feely 71%
Joseph Chaplik 9.0%
John Trobough 7.3%
Todd Graham 5.5%
$380,497 ปริมาณ
$380,497 ปริมาณ
Jay Feely
71%
Joseph Chaplik
9%
John Trobough
7%
Todd Graham
5%
Gina Swoboda
3%
Mark Brnovich
1%
Kari Lake
1%
Jason Duey
6%
Matt Gress
1%
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
1%
Kaitlin Purrington
1%
Derrick Gallego
<1%
Paul Reevs
<1%
Brandon Sowers
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 71.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early Trump endorsement in January and dominant Q1 2026 fundraising of $742,000—outpacing rivals and even Democratic candidates combined—as reported this week. The open seat, vacated by incumbent David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, has drawn a crowded field, but Feely's ballot qualification in March and high-profile events bolster his frontrunner status. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, at 9.5% after resigning in February to campaign full-time, trails without Trump backing, while John Trobough's 7.3% reflects local endorsements like Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell's. Absent public polls, traders weigh endorsements, cash, and name recognition amid Arizona's competitive midterm landscape.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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