Jerry Carl holds the strongest position among Republican primary contenders for Alabama’s 1st Congressional District seat due to his prior service as U.S. representative from 2021 to 2025 and consistent leads in available indicators. A May 19 ghost primary, invalidated by ongoing litigation over district boundaries, showed Carl capturing roughly 40 percent to Rhett Marques’ 31 percent, with all other candidates below 10 percent. Earlier polling in early May had briefly placed state Representative Marques ahead, but subsequent results reinforced Carl’s advantage rooted in name recognition and geographic support. The August 11 primary, potentially featuring a June 16 runoff, remains the decisive contest amid the crowded field of lesser-known challengers.