Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% there in 2024—and his strong fundraising edge with $678,000 raised versus negligible sums for rivals. Recent certification of the June 2 top-two primary ballot confirms weak Republican opposition from Charles Hoelter, alongside Democratic challengers Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus independent Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to easily secure one of the two general election spots. Mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 further bolsters Democratic margins. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sidelining Mullin or an improbable GOP top-two advancement amid high Democratic turnout, though historical base rates in safe districts like this favor the incumbent party.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$98,988 ปริมาณ
$98,988 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$98,988 ปริมาณ
$98,988 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$80,024 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$18,963 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% there in 2024—and his strong fundraising edge with $678,000 raised versus negligible sums for rivals. Recent certification of the June 2 top-two primary ballot confirms weak Republican opposition from Charles Hoelter, alongside Democratic challengers Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus independent Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to easily secure one of the two general election spots. Mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 further bolsters Democratic margins. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sidelining Mullin or an improbable GOP top-two advancement amid high Democratic turnout, though historical base rates in safe districts like this favor the incumbent party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$98,988วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% there in 2024—and his strong fundraising edge with $678,000 raised versus negligible sums for rivals. Recent certification of the June 2 top-two primary ballot confirms weak Republican opposition from Charles Hoelter, alongside Democratic challengers Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus independent Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to easily secure one of the two general election spots. Mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 further bolsters Democratic margins. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sidelining Mullin or an improbable GOP top-two advancement amid high Democratic turnout, though historical base rates in safe districts like this favor the incumbent party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$98,988วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% there in 2024—and his strong fundraising edge with $678,000 raised versus negligible sums for rivals. Recent certification of the June 2 top-two primary ballot confirms weak Republican opposition from Charles Hoelter, alongside Democratic challengers Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, plus independent Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to easily secure one of the two general election spots. Mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 further bolsters Democratic margins. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sidelining Mullin or an improbable GOP top-two advancement amid high Democratic turnout, though historical base rates in safe districts like this favor the incumbent party.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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