Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-31 House Election Winner
CA-31 House Election Winner
$15,927 ปริมาณ
$15,927 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$15,927 ปริมาณ
$15,927 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,679 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$8,248 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,927วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,927วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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