Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's dominant position in California's 44th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party hold in the November general election. The district delivered 66% for Kamala Harris in 2024, aligning with Barragán's consistent 70%+ victories, bolstered by a massive fundraising edge—$1.17 million cash on hand versus Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $8,000 as of late March. Recent California GOP endorsement of Angel on May 4 and candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 top-two primary have not shifted odds amid stable district demographics post-2025 redistricting. While exceeding 90%, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-44 House Election Winner
CA-44 House Election Winner
$21,535 ปริมาณ
$21,535 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$21,535 ปริมาณ
$21,535 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,354 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican Party
$8,181 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's dominant position in California's 44th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party hold in the November general election. The district delivered 66% for Kamala Harris in 2024, aligning with Barragán's consistent 70%+ victories, bolstered by a massive fundraising edge—$1.17 million cash on hand versus Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $8,000 as of late March. Recent California GOP endorsement of Angel on May 4 and candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 top-two primary have not shifted odds amid stable district demographics post-2025 redistricting. While exceeding 90%, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,535วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's dominant position in California's 44th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party hold in the November general election. The district delivered 66% for Kamala Harris in 2024, aligning with Barragán's consistent 70%+ victories, bolstered by a massive fundraising edge—$1.17 million cash on hand versus Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $8,000 as of late March. Recent California GOP endorsement of Angel on May 4 and candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 top-two primary have not shifted odds amid stable district demographics post-2025 redistricting. While exceeding 90%, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,535วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's dominant position in California's 44th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party hold in the November general election. The district delivered 66% for Kamala Harris in 2024, aligning with Barragán's consistent 70%+ victories, bolstered by a massive fundraising edge—$1.17 million cash on hand versus Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $8,000 as of late March. Recent California GOP endorsement of Angel on May 4 and candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 top-two primary have not shifted odds amid stable district demographics post-2025 redistricting. While exceeding 90%, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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