Ashley Moody’s position as the appointed Republican incumbent in Florida’s special Senate primary drives trader consensus around her 95% odds, reflecting her selection by Governor Ron DeSantis in early 2025 to complete Marco Rubio’s term and her prior statewide electoral record. The August 18 primary features limited opposition from lesser-known candidates, with no major polling shifts or high-profile challenges emerging in recent months. Incumbency advantages, Republican registration edge in the state, and absence of divisive primary dynamics reinforce the market pricing. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected late endorsement for a rival, health-related developments, or a significant scandal surfacing before the primary date.