**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability. Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Amsterdam on July 11?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 11?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$86,606 ปริมาณ
$86,606 ปริมาณ
Jul 11, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$86,606 ปริมาณ
$86,606 ปริมาณ
Jul 11, 2026
22°C or below
$5,414 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$16,461 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$15,372 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$13,489 ปริมาณ
Yes
26°C
$11,947 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$7,639 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$6,288 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$3,885 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$3,326 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$926 ปริมาณ
No
32°C or higher
$1,858 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability.
Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$86,606วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability.
Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$86,606วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability. Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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