Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Beijing's highest temperature on April 20, with implied probabilities evenly split across 22–25°C outcomes around 20–21% each, aligning with China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting a 22°C high under sunny skies and light southwest breezes. This clustering stems from recent cooling after an early-April heatwave—where temperatures spiked to 30°C on April 14 due to warm sea surface anomalies—now moderated by northerly frontal influences and potential lingering cloudiness from light rain forecast for April 19. Ensemble spreads in global models like GFS and ECMWF show variability of 2–4°C tied to upper-level ridging strength and boundary layer mixing, against April climatological averages near 20°C. Watch CMA updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official Beijing observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Beijing on April 20?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 20?
24°C 32%
20°C or below 27%
22°C 25%
23°C 21%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Apr 20, 2026
20°C or below
14%
21°C
10%
22°C
25%
23°C
21%
24°C
32%
25°C
14%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
24°C 32%
20°C or below 27%
22°C 25%
23°C 21%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Apr 20, 2026
20°C or below
$53 ปริมาณ
14%
21°C
$10 ปริมาณ
10%
22°C
$6 ปริมาณ
25%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
21%
24°C
$46 ปริมาณ
32%
25°C
$13 ปริมาณ
14%
26°C
$17 ปริมาณ
4%
27°C
$7 ปริมาณ
2%
28°C
$9 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C
$160 ปริมาณ
3%
30°C or higher
$160 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Beijing's highest temperature on April 20, with implied probabilities evenly split across 22–25°C outcomes around 20–21% each, aligning with China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting a 22°C high under sunny skies and light southwest breezes. This clustering stems from recent cooling after an early-April heatwave—where temperatures spiked to 30°C on April 14 due to warm sea surface anomalies—now moderated by northerly frontal influences and potential lingering cloudiness from light rain forecast for April 19. Ensemble spreads in global models like GFS and ECMWF show variability of 2–4°C tied to upper-level ridging strength and boundary layer mixing, against April climatological averages near 20°C. Watch CMA updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official Beijing observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$465วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Beijing's highest temperature on April 20, with implied probabilities evenly split across 22–25°C outcomes around 20–21% each, aligning with China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting a 22°C high under sunny skies and light southwest breezes. This clustering stems from recent cooling after an early-April heatwave—where temperatures spiked to 30°C on April 14 due to warm sea surface anomalies—now moderated by northerly frontal influences and potential lingering cloudiness from light rain forecast for April 19. Ensemble spreads in global models like GFS and ECMWF show variability of 2–4°C tied to upper-level ridging strength and boundary layer mixing, against April climatological averages near 20°C. Watch CMA updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official Beijing observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$465วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Beijing's highest temperature on April 20, with implied probabilities evenly split across 22–25°C outcomes around 20–21% each, aligning with China Meteorological Administration guidance projecting a 22°C high under sunny skies and light southwest breezes. This clustering stems from recent cooling after an early-April heatwave—where temperatures spiked to 30°C on April 14 due to warm sea surface anomalies—now moderated by northerly frontal influences and potential lingering cloudiness from light rain forecast for April 19. Ensemble spreads in global models like GFS and ECMWF show variability of 2–4°C tied to upper-level ridging strength and boundary layer mixing, against April climatological averages near 20°C. Watch CMA updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official Beijing observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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