Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Beijing on April 27?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 27?
25°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$214,203 ปริมาณ
$214,203 ปริมาณ
Apr 27, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$214,203 ปริมาณ
$214,203 ปริมาณ
Apr 27, 2026
17°C or below
$3,195 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$2,629 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$1,909 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$6,223 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$13,881 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$25,729 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$37,607 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$46,520 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$45,101 ปริมาณ
Yes
26°C
$18,604 ปริมาณ
No
27°C or higher
$12,806 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$214,203วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$214,203วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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