Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 4?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,104 ปริมาณ
$87,104 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,104 ปริมาณ
$87,104 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
21°C or below
$1,384 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$2,476 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$2,353 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$2,251 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$6,604 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$12,354 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$8,956 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$21,688 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$8,518 ปริมาณ
Yes
30°C
$10,258 ปริมาณ
No
31°C or higher
$10,262 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$87,104วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$87,104วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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