Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 2?
27°C 100%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$79,654 ปริมาณ
$79,654 ปริมาณ
Jul 2, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$79,654 ปริมาณ
$79,654 ปริมาณ
Jul 2, 2026
19°C or below
$3,269 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$2,284 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$1,805 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$2,540 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$10,341 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$4,454 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$8,379 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$14,739 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$15,549 ปริมาณ
Yes
28°C
$9,374 ปริมาณ
No
29°C or higher
$6,921 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$79,654วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$79,654วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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