Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 18?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,770 ปริมาณ
$57,770 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,770 ปริมาณ
$57,770 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
22°C or below
$1,020 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$5,671 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$5,252 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$7,724 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$13,535 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$9,071 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$7,023 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$4,676 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$3,443 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$127 ปริมาณ
No
32°C or higher
$227 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57,770วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57,770วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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