Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 30–32°C for Chengdu’s July 2 maximum because ensemble forecasts from major models align with the city’s July climatological average high of ~31°C under typical subtropical monsoon conditions. The Sichuan basin’s topography traps heat and moisture, while high humidity and variable cloud cover or scattered showers can suppress or enhance daytime warming by 1–2°C. Differentiating outcomes hinge on precise timing of any rainfall, boundary-layer mixing, and steering by the western Pacific subtropical high; drier, clearer scenarios favor the upper end of the favored range, while increased convection lowers peaks toward 30°C. Updated short-range model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance remain the key near-term catalysts.