Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 6?
39°C 57%
40°C 34%
38°C 9.2%
41°C 2.6%
$49,226 ปริมาณ
$49,226 ปริมาณ
Jul 6, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
1%
38°C
9%
39°C
57%
40°C
34%
41°C
3%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 57%
40°C 34%
38°C 9.2%
41°C 2.6%
$49,226 ปริมาณ
$49,226 ปริมาณ
Jul 6, 2026
35°C or below
$6,000 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C
$5,947 ปริมาณ
<1%
37°C
$5,687 ปริมาณ
1%
38°C
$4,860 ปริมาณ
9%
39°C
$7,583 ปริมาณ
57%
40°C
$6,465 ปริมาณ
34%
41°C
$3,442 ปริมาณ
3%
42°C
$2,639 ปริมาณ
<1%
43°C
$1,706 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C
$2,510 ปริมาณ
<1%
45°C or higher
$2,387 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$49,226วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$49,226วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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