Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 7?
40°C 40%
39°C 34%
38°C 19%
41°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 7, 2026
36°C or below
1%
37°C
4%
38°C
19%
39°C
34%
40°C
40%
41°C
6%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C or higher
<1%
40°C 40%
39°C 34%
38°C 19%
41°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 7, 2026
36°C or below
$397 ปริมาณ
1%
37°C
$492 ปริมาณ
4%
38°C
$640 ปริมาณ
19%
39°C
$554 ปริมาณ
34%
40°C
$718 ปริมาณ
40%
41°C
$872 ปริมาณ
6%
42°C
$188 ปริมาณ
1%
43°C
$140 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C
$200 ปริมาณ
<1%
45°C
$153 ปริมาณ
<1%
46°C or higher
$331 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,684วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,684วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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