**Current model guidance and ensemble consensus from European and global numerical weather prediction systems point to a daily maximum near 28°C in Istanbul on August 12, 2026, under stable late-summer conditions with moderate northerly flow and limited insolation from scattered cloud cover.** This aligns closely with long-term August climatology, where mean daily maxima typically reach 28–29°C at official stations such as Istanbul Airport. Recent observational trends reinforce the positioning: preceding days recorded peaks of 27–29°C with minimal ensemble spread beyond minor boundary-layer variations, and no significant warm advection or subsidence strengthening is indicated in short-range forecasts. The 48.5% implied probability on 28°C (followed by 29°C at 12%) reflects traders’ aggregation of consistent model runs and the Turkish State Meteorological Service outlook, which shows little deviation expected before the August 12 resolution window. Higher outcomes above 30°C would require an unforecasted mesoscale feature or measurement anomaly at the official site, while lower readings remain possible but less favored given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
28°C 50%
29°C 25%
27°C 17%
30°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
8%
27°C
17%
28°C
50%
29°C
25%
30°C
11%
31°C
4%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 50%
29°C 25%
27°C 17%
30°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$12 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$12 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$12 ปริมาณ
6%
26°C
$6 ปริมาณ
8%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
28°C
$9 ปริมาณ
50%
29°C
$5 ปริมาณ
25%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
31°C
$7 ปริมาณ
4%
32°C
$12 ปริมาณ
4%
33°C or higher
$12 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current model guidance and ensemble consensus from European and global numerical weather prediction systems point to a daily maximum near 28°C in Istanbul on August 12, 2026, under stable late-summer conditions with moderate northerly flow and limited insolation from scattered cloud cover.** This aligns closely with long-term August climatology, where mean daily maxima typically reach 28–29°C at official stations such as Istanbul Airport.
Recent observational trends reinforce the positioning: preceding days recorded peaks of 27–29°C with minimal ensemble spread beyond minor boundary-layer variations, and no significant warm advection or subsidence strengthening is indicated in short-range forecasts. The 48.5% implied probability on 28°C (followed by 29°C at 12%) reflects traders’ aggregation of consistent model runs and the Turkish State Meteorological Service outlook, which shows little deviation expected before the August 12 resolution window.
Higher outcomes above 30°C would require an unforecasted mesoscale feature or measurement anomaly at the official site, while lower readings remain possible but less favored given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$87วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current model guidance and ensemble consensus from European and global numerical weather prediction systems point to a daily maximum near 28°C in Istanbul on August 12, 2026, under stable late-summer conditions with moderate northerly flow and limited insolation from scattered cloud cover.** This aligns closely with long-term August climatology, where mean daily maxima typically reach 28–29°C at official stations such as Istanbul Airport.
Recent observational trends reinforce the positioning: preceding days recorded peaks of 27–29°C with minimal ensemble spread beyond minor boundary-layer variations, and no significant warm advection or subsidence strengthening is indicated in short-range forecasts. The 48.5% implied probability on 28°C (followed by 29°C at 12%) reflects traders’ aggregation of consistent model runs and the Turkish State Meteorological Service outlook, which shows little deviation expected before the August 12 resolution window.
Higher outcomes above 30°C would require an unforecasted mesoscale feature or measurement anomaly at the official site, while lower readings remain possible but less favored given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$87วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current model guidance and ensemble consensus from European and global numerical weather prediction systems point to a daily maximum near 28°C in Istanbul on August 12, 2026, under stable late-summer conditions with moderate northerly flow and limited insolation from scattered cloud cover.** This aligns closely with long-term August climatology, where mean daily maxima typically reach 28–29°C at official stations such as Istanbul Airport. Recent observational trends reinforce the positioning: preceding days recorded peaks of 27–29°C with minimal ensemble spread beyond minor boundary-layer variations, and no significant warm advection or subsidence strengthening is indicated in short-range forecasts. The 48.5% implied probability on 28°C (followed by 29°C at 12%) reflects traders’ aggregation of consistent model runs and the Turkish State Meteorological Service outlook, which shows little deviation expected before the August 12 resolution window. Higher outcomes above 30°C would require an unforecasted mesoscale feature or measurement anomaly at the official site, while lower readings remain possible but less favored given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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