Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 10?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 10?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$213,890 ปริมาณ
$213,890 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$213,890 ปริมาณ
$213,890 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
18°C or below
$7,194 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$3,390 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$4,979 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$12,239 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$13,102 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$21,955 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$26,515 ปริมาณ
Yes
25°C
$53,673 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$39,298 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$13,528 ปริมาณ
No
28°C or higher
$18,016 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$213,890วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$213,890วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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