Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$124,507 ปริมาณ
$124,507 ปริมาณ
May 2, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$124,507 ปริมาณ
$124,507 ปริมาณ
May 2, 2026
18°C or below
$3,438 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$1,701 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$6,091 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$10,672 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$13,060 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$24,636 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$19,535 ปริมาณ
Yes
25°C
$17,201 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$12,693 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$7,312 ปริมาณ
No
28°C or higher
$8,169 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$124,507วันสิ้นสุด
May 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$124,507วันสิ้นสุด
May 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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