Recent MetService forecasts for Wellington project a mainly fine day on August 3 with westerly winds shifting southerly by evening, supporting a daytime maximum near 15°C under conditions that favor modest daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C, as traders incorporate the official guidance against a long-term August climatology of 12–13°C mean highs and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average or below-average temperatures in the region. Westerly flow can enhance insolation and reduce cloud cover compared to typical southerly outbreaks, while the evening wind shift and possible showers introduce limited downside risk to the peak reading. Model consensus remains high this close to the event, though minor revisions in steering patterns or cloud development could still adjust the observed maximum within the narrow 14–17°C band dominating implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
16°C 47%
17°C 29%
15°C 21%
14°C 3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
21%
16°C
47%
17°C
29%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 47%
17°C 29%
15°C 21%
14°C 3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
$453 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$336 ปริมาณ
1%
12°C
$427 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$365 ปริมาณ
1%
14°C
$544 ปริมาณ
3%
15°C
$628 ปริมาณ
21%
16°C
$1,412 ปริมาณ
47%
17°C
$671 ปริมาณ
29%
18°C
$22 ปริมาณ
2%
19°C
$330 ปริมาณ
1%
20°C or higher
$5 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts for Wellington project a mainly fine day on August 3 with westerly winds shifting southerly by evening, supporting a daytime maximum near 15°C under conditions that favor modest daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C, as traders incorporate the official guidance against a long-term August climatology of 12–13°C mean highs and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average or below-average temperatures in the region. Westerly flow can enhance insolation and reduce cloud cover compared to typical southerly outbreaks, while the evening wind shift and possible showers introduce limited downside risk to the peak reading. Model consensus remains high this close to the event, though minor revisions in steering patterns or cloud development could still adjust the observed maximum within the narrow 14–17°C band dominating implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,193วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts for Wellington project a mainly fine day on August 3 with westerly winds shifting southerly by evening, supporting a daytime maximum near 15°C under conditions that favor modest daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C, as traders incorporate the official guidance against a long-term August climatology of 12–13°C mean highs and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average or below-average temperatures in the region. Westerly flow can enhance insolation and reduce cloud cover compared to typical southerly outbreaks, while the evening wind shift and possible showers introduce limited downside risk to the peak reading. Model consensus remains high this close to the event, though minor revisions in steering patterns or cloud development could still adjust the observed maximum within the narrow 14–17°C band dominating implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,193วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService forecasts for Wellington project a mainly fine day on August 3 with westerly winds shifting southerly by evening, supporting a daytime maximum near 15°C under conditions that favor modest daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C, as traders incorporate the official guidance against a long-term August climatology of 12–13°C mean highs and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average or below-average temperatures in the region. Westerly flow can enhance insolation and reduce cloud cover compared to typical southerly outbreaks, while the evening wind shift and possible showers introduce limited downside risk to the peak reading. Model consensus remains high this close to the event, though minor revisions in steering patterns or cloud development could still adjust the observed maximum within the narrow 14–17°C band dominating implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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