Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 12?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 12?
29°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$79,627 ปริมาณ
$79,627 ปริมาณ
May 12, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$79,627 ปริมาณ
$79,627 ปริมาณ
May 12, 2026
25°C or below
$6,691 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$7,162 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$2,854 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$10,094 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$25,676 ปริมาณ
Yes
30°C
$6,390 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$4,910 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$5,165 ปริมาณ
No
33°C
$5,519 ปริมาณ
No
34°C
$2,175 ปริมาณ
No
35°C or higher
$2,990 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 10, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$79,627วันสิ้นสุด
May 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 10, 2026, 12:20 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$79,627วันสิ้นสุด
May 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 10, 2026, 12:20 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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