Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike above 60 percent, supporting elevated 5-year Treasury yields near 4.54 percent as of September 2. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, reinforced by higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, has increased term premium demands amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury supply. Mixed labor data and robust nominal growth further anchor expectations for a higher neutral rate. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision with updated projections, which could shift monetary policy expectations and Treasury pricing in either direction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
4.90%
50%
4.83%
50%
4.78%
50%
4.73%
50%
4.70%
50%
4.67%
50%
4.64%
50%
4.61%
50%
4.58%
50%
$0.00 ปริมาณ
4.90%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.83%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.78%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.73%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.70%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.67%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.64%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.61%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
4.58%
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike above 60 percent, supporting elevated 5-year Treasury yields near 4.54 percent as of September 2. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, reinforced by higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, has increased term premium demands amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury supply. Mixed labor data and robust nominal growth further anchor expectations for a higher neutral rate. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision with updated projections, which could shift monetary policy expectations and Treasury pricing in either direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike above 60 percent, supporting elevated 5-year Treasury yields near 4.54 percent as of September 2. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, reinforced by higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, has increased term premium demands amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury supply. Mixed labor data and robust nominal growth further anchor expectations for a higher neutral rate. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision with updated projections, which could shift monetary policy expectations and Treasury pricing in either direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike above 60 percent, supporting elevated 5-year Treasury yields near 4.54 percent as of September 2. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, reinforced by higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, has increased term premium demands amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury supply. Mixed labor data and robust nominal growth further anchor expectations for a higher neutral rate. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision with updated projections, which could shift monetary policy expectations and Treasury pricing in either direction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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