Global seismicity produces a baseline of roughly six to fourteen magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week according to USGS catalogs, with typical counts clustering around eight to ten when no major aftershock sequences are active. The August 10, 2026, M7.4 Colombia event has already generated several M5.5+ aftershocks and may sustain elevated rates into the August 17–23 window, while recent activity near Indonesia, El Salvador, and Pakistan illustrates ongoing tectonic variability across subduction zones and intraplate faults. Weekly totals exhibit substantial natural variance driven by mainshock-aftershock dynamics and regional clustering rather than uniform Poisson distribution, pushing market-implied probabilities for extremes (>13 or ≤6) slightly ahead of central bins. USGS monitoring and updated focal mechanism data will clarify whether the Colombia sequence decays or persists, directly influencing resolution of the count.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
>13 20%
≤6 19%
8 13%
9 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
19%
7
12%
8
13%
9
13%
10
12%
11
10%
12
8%
13
8%
>13
20%
>13 20%
≤6 19%
8 13%
9 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
$630 ปริมาณ
19%
7
$117 ปริมาณ
12%
8
$131 ปริมาณ
13%
9
$117 ปริมาณ
13%
10
$117 ปริมาณ
12%
11
$117 ปริมาณ
10%
12
$122 ปริมาณ
8%
13
$124 ปริมาณ
8%
>13
$356 ปริมาณ
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity produces a baseline of roughly six to fourteen magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week according to USGS catalogs, with typical counts clustering around eight to ten when no major aftershock sequences are active. The August 10, 2026, M7.4 Colombia event has already generated several M5.5+ aftershocks and may sustain elevated rates into the August 17–23 window, while recent activity near Indonesia, El Salvador, and Pakistan illustrates ongoing tectonic variability across subduction zones and intraplate faults. Weekly totals exhibit substantial natural variance driven by mainshock-aftershock dynamics and regional clustering rather than uniform Poisson distribution, pushing market-implied probabilities for extremes (>13 or ≤6) slightly ahead of central bins. USGS monitoring and updated focal mechanism data will clarify whether the Colombia sequence decays or persists, directly influencing resolution of the count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,831วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity produces a baseline of roughly six to fourteen magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week according to USGS catalogs, with typical counts clustering around eight to ten when no major aftershock sequences are active. The August 10, 2026, M7.4 Colombia event has already generated several M5.5+ aftershocks and may sustain elevated rates into the August 17–23 window, while recent activity near Indonesia, El Salvador, and Pakistan illustrates ongoing tectonic variability across subduction zones and intraplate faults. Weekly totals exhibit substantial natural variance driven by mainshock-aftershock dynamics and regional clustering rather than uniform Poisson distribution, pushing market-implied probabilities for extremes (>13 or ≤6) slightly ahead of central bins. USGS monitoring and updated focal mechanism data will clarify whether the Colombia sequence decays or persists, directly influencing resolution of the count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,831วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity produces a baseline of roughly six to fourteen magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week according to USGS catalogs, with typical counts clustering around eight to ten when no major aftershock sequences are active. The August 10, 2026, M7.4 Colombia event has already generated several M5.5+ aftershocks and may sustain elevated rates into the August 17–23 window, while recent activity near Indonesia, El Salvador, and Pakistan illustrates ongoing tectonic variability across subduction zones and intraplate faults. Weekly totals exhibit substantial natural variance driven by mainshock-aftershock dynamics and regional clustering rather than uniform Poisson distribution, pushing market-implied probabilities for extremes (>13 or ≤6) slightly ahead of central bins. USGS monitoring and updated focal mechanism data will clarify whether the Colombia sequence decays or persists, directly influencing resolution of the count.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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