Recent Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz have centered on direct strikes and warnings against commercial vessels, including projectiles hitting Thai-flagged and other tankers in mid-to-late July 2026, alongside claims of enforcing approved transit routes and potential tolls after a mid-August deadline. These moves follow earlier exchanges of US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and logistics hubs in Bandar Abbas in response to ship attacks, amid a US naval blockade that has redirected or disabled multiple vessels. Ongoing disruptions have reduced traffic volumes and raised insurance costs, with Iran seeking greater control over the waterway while facing continued US enforcement and limited diplomatic talks. Key variables for outcomes include further vessel incidents, escalation signals from either side, or any renewed ceasefire terms before scheduled toll assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
ใหม่
$11,453 ปริมาณ
Aug 9, 2026
August 9
51%
August 16
62%
August 31
87%
September 30
89%
$11,453 ปริมาณ
August 9
$3,641 ปริมาณ
51%
August 16
$3,202 ปริมาณ
62%
August 31
$2,131 ปริมาณ
87%
September 30
$2,478 ปริมาณ
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz have centered on direct strikes and warnings against commercial vessels, including projectiles hitting Thai-flagged and other tankers in mid-to-late July 2026, alongside claims of enforcing approved transit routes and potential tolls after a mid-August deadline. These moves follow earlier exchanges of US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and logistics hubs in Bandar Abbas in response to ship attacks, amid a US naval blockade that has redirected or disabled multiple vessels. Ongoing disruptions have reduced traffic volumes and raised insurance costs, with Iran seeking greater control over the waterway while facing continued US enforcement and limited diplomatic talks. Key variables for outcomes include further vessel incidents, escalation signals from either side, or any renewed ceasefire terms before scheduled toll assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,453วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz have centered on direct strikes and warnings against commercial vessels, including projectiles hitting Thai-flagged and other tankers in mid-to-late July 2026, alongside claims of enforcing approved transit routes and potential tolls after a mid-August deadline. These moves follow earlier exchanges of US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and logistics hubs in Bandar Abbas in response to ship attacks, amid a US naval blockade that has redirected or disabled multiple vessels. Ongoing disruptions have reduced traffic volumes and raised insurance costs, with Iran seeking greater control over the waterway while facing continued US enforcement and limited diplomatic talks. Key variables for outcomes include further vessel incidents, escalation signals from either side, or any renewed ceasefire terms before scheduled toll assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,453วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz have centered on direct strikes and warnings against commercial vessels, including projectiles hitting Thai-flagged and other tankers in mid-to-late July 2026, alongside claims of enforcing approved transit routes and potential tolls after a mid-August deadline. These moves follow earlier exchanges of US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and logistics hubs in Bandar Abbas in response to ship attacks, amid a US naval blockade that has redirected or disabled multiple vessels. Ongoing disruptions have reduced traffic volumes and raised insurance costs, with Iran seeking greater control over the waterway while facing continued US enforcement and limited diplomatic talks. Key variables for outcomes include further vessel incidents, escalation signals from either side, or any renewed ceasefire terms before scheduled toll assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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