Israeli officials have conditioned any full withdrawal of ground forces from southern Lebanon on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment across the territory, a framework formalized in the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral agreement that established only limited pilot zones for phased, results-based redeployment. As of September 2026, Israel continues operations in its declared security zone, including large-scale detonations and strikes, while stating no timeline exists for exiting the buffer area. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has reaffirmed demands for complete withdrawal alongside prisoner returns and reconstruction, with U.S.-mediated talks postponed from September to October amid these gaps. These positions sustain trader consensus around low probabilities for near-term full withdrawal, as implementation hinges on unresolved security benchmarks rather than fixed deadlines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo official announcement of full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by deadline
By the market resolution date, no official Israeli government announcement or overwhelming credible reporting confirmed a full withdrawal of all ground forces from Lebanese territory. Partial withdrawals and ongoing military presence persisted, leading to market resolution at very low probabilities for full withdrawal by September 30 and December 31.
UN Secretary-General calls for Israeli withdrawal amid escalating hostilities
September 30 dips to 1%1%
The UN Secretary-General condemned mounting civilian casualties in southern Lebanon and called on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory as fighting intensified, highlighting ongoing conflict and lack of full withdrawal.
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