Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered framework agreement in late June 2026 that ties any further Israeli troop redeployment from southern Lebanon to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and Lebanese Armed Forces control over designated areas. Israel completed limited pullbacks from two small pilot zones under the deal, but officials have repeatedly stated that the broader security buffer will remain until Hezbollah poses no threat, with no fixed timeline. Hezbollah has rejected the terms and continues to demand unconditional withdrawal. Negotiations for the next implementation phase, originally slated for September, were postponed until October amid scheduling issues and Israeli elections. Ongoing airstrikes, buffer zone enforcement, and Lebanese army positioning in contested areas continue to shape conditions for any additional phased exits.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo official announcement of full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by deadline
By the market resolution date, no official Israeli government announcement or overwhelming credible reporting confirmed a full withdrawal of all ground forces from Lebanese territory. Partial withdrawals and ongoing military presence persisted, leading to market resolution at very low probabilities for full withdrawal by September 30 and December 31.
UN Secretary-General calls for Israeli withdrawal amid escalating hostilities in southern Lebanon
The UN Secretary-General condemned mounting civilian casualties and called on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory as fighting intensified. This international pressure highlighted the ongoing conflict but did not lead to an Israeli withdrawal announcement, maintaining low market confidence.
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