**Traders assign the highest probability (57.5%) to fewer than five posts by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 21–28, 2026, reflecting expectations of limited public messaging in the absence of immediate crises.** Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role after his father’s death in early 2026 and has used the platform for statements on military reorganization, regional threats, and official appointments, including senior armed forces changes announced on August 10. Recent activity patterns show bursts tied to conflict escalations or policy shifts, but quieter periods during routine governance. With no major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic deadlines confirmed in the immediate window, the market pricing embeds a baseline of restrained output. Higher bins (10–14 and above) capture residual uncertainty around potential responses to unfolding events, while the spread across mid-range outcomes signals trader recognition that even modest triggers could increase volume. Resolution hinges on verified posts from official accounts during the exact seven-day period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วKhamenei # posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
<5 57%
40-44 39%
45-49 39%
50-54 39%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 28, 2026
<5
57%
5-9
16%
10-14
21%
15-19
20%
20-24
20%
25-29
20%
30-34
20%
35-39
20%
40-44
39%
45-49
39%
50-54
39%
55-59
39%
60+
34%
<5 57%
40-44 39%
45-49 39%
50-54 39%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 28, 2026
<5
$37 ปริมาณ
57%
5-9
$21 ปริมาณ
16%
10-14
$0 ปริมาณ
21%
15-19
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
20-24
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
25-29
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
30-34
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
35-39
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
40-44
$5 ปริมาณ
39%
45-49
$5 ปริมาณ
39%
50-54
$5 ปริมาณ
39%
55-59
$5 ปริมาณ
39%
60+
$5 ปริมาณ
34%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Traders assign the highest probability (57.5%) to fewer than five posts by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 21–28, 2026, reflecting expectations of limited public messaging in the absence of immediate crises.** Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role after his father’s death in early 2026 and has used the platform for statements on military reorganization, regional threats, and official appointments, including senior armed forces changes announced on August 10. Recent activity patterns show bursts tied to conflict escalations or policy shifts, but quieter periods during routine governance. With no major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic deadlines confirmed in the immediate window, the market pricing embeds a baseline of restrained output. Higher bins (10–14 and above) capture residual uncertainty around potential responses to unfolding events, while the spread across mid-range outcomes signals trader recognition that even modest triggers could increase volume. Resolution hinges on verified posts from official accounts during the exact seven-day period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Traders assign the highest probability (57.5%) to fewer than five posts by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 21–28, 2026, reflecting expectations of limited public messaging in the absence of immediate crises.** Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role after his father’s death in early 2026 and has used the platform for statements on military reorganization, regional threats, and official appointments, including senior armed forces changes announced on August 10. Recent activity patterns show bursts tied to conflict escalations or policy shifts, but quieter periods during routine governance. With no major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic deadlines confirmed in the immediate window, the market pricing embeds a baseline of restrained output. Higher bins (10–14 and above) capture residual uncertainty around potential responses to unfolding events, while the spread across mid-range outcomes signals trader recognition that even modest triggers could increase volume. Resolution hinges on verified posts from official accounts during the exact seven-day period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders assign the highest probability (57.5%) to fewer than five posts by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 21–28, 2026, reflecting expectations of limited public messaging in the absence of immediate crises.** Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role after his father’s death in early 2026 and has used the platform for statements on military reorganization, regional threats, and official appointments, including senior armed forces changes announced on August 10. Recent activity patterns show bursts tied to conflict escalations or policy shifts, but quieter periods during routine governance. With no major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic deadlines confirmed in the immediate window, the market pricing embeds a baseline of restrained output. Higher bins (10–14 and above) capture residual uncertainty around potential responses to unfolding events, while the spread across mid-range outcomes signals trader recognition that even modest triggers could increase volume. Resolution hinges on verified posts from official accounts during the exact seven-day period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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