The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, driven by parliament's March extension of its mandate amid intensified Israel-Hezbollah conflict and widespread displacement, has left the field highly fragmented with no dominant contender. This uncertainty keeps implied probabilities low across parties, with Amal Movement edging slightly ahead due to its institutional role under Speaker Nabih Berri and consistent municipal-level strength in Shia areas alongside Hezbollah allies. Key differentiators include sectarian alliances, expatriate voting rules, and potential returns by groups like the Future Movement, while ongoing hostilities, coalition negotiations, and security conditions could consolidate or shift support before the rescheduled vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน
ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 2.1%
Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM) <1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom) <1%
$667,854 ปริมาณ
$667,854 ปริมาณ
May 30, 2026
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)
2%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
<1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM)
<1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom)
<1%
ลานา – พรรคประชาธิปไตยสังคม (ลานา)
<1%
พันธมิตรวะตะนี (วะตะนี)
<1%
เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb)
<1%
พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb)
<1%
ขบวนการมาราดา (MM)
<1%
กลุ่มอิสลาม (IG)
<1%
พรรคอาหรับสังคมนิยมบาธในเลบานอน (บาธ)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
พรรคสนทนาแห่งชาติ (NDP)
<1%
พรรคสังคมนิยมก้าวหน้า (PSP)
<1%
ขบวนการอิสรภาพ (IM)
<1%
สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA)
<1%
พรรคชาตินิยมเสรี (NLP)
<1%
พรรคมะดะ (มะดะ)
<1%
ขบวนการศักดิ์ศรี (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 2.1%
Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM) <1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom) <1%
$667,854 ปริมาณ
$667,854 ปริมาณ
May 30, 2026
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)
$63,909 ปริมาณ
2%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
$167,783 ปริมาณ
<1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM)
$80,518 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom)
$11,776 ปริมาณ
<1%
ลานา – พรรคประชาธิปไตยสังคม (ลานา)
$13,761 ปริมาณ
<1%
พันธมิตรวะตะนี (วะตะนี)
$7,539 ปริมาณ
<1%
เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb)
$52,901 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb)
$7,370 ปริมาณ
<1%
ขบวนการมาราดา (MM)
$8,688 ปริมาณ
<1%
กลุ่มอิสลาม (IG)
$8,631 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคอาหรับสังคมนิยมบาธในเลบานอน (บาธ)
$10,710 ปริมาณ
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$9,477 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคสนทนาแห่งชาติ (NDP)
$47,398 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคสังคมนิยมก้าวหน้า (PSP)
$55,015 ปริมาณ
<1%
ขบวนการอิสรภาพ (IM)
$8,894 ปริมาณ
<1%
สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA)
$9,181 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคชาตินิยมเสรี (NLP)
$9,599 ปริมาณ
<1%
พรรคมะดะ (มะดะ)
$28,113 ปริมาณ
<1%
ขบวนการศักดิ์ศรี (DM)
$29,195 ปริมาณ
<1%
ReLebanon
$9,819 ปริมาณ
<1%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
$10,552 ปริมาณ
<1%
Union Party (UP)
$7,760 ปริมาณ
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
$9,264 ปริมาณ
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, driven by parliament's March extension of its mandate amid intensified Israel-Hezbollah conflict and widespread displacement, has left the field highly fragmented with no dominant contender. This uncertainty keeps implied probabilities low across parties, with Amal Movement edging slightly ahead due to its institutional role under Speaker Nabih Berri and consistent municipal-level strength in Shia areas alongside Hezbollah allies. Key differentiators include sectarian alliances, expatriate voting rules, and potential returns by groups like the Future Movement, while ongoing hostilities, coalition negotiations, and security conditions could consolidate or shift support before the rescheduled vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$667,854วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, driven by parliament's March extension of its mandate amid intensified Israel-Hezbollah conflict and widespread displacement, has left the field highly fragmented with no dominant contender. This uncertainty keeps implied probabilities low across parties, with Amal Movement edging slightly ahead due to its institutional role under Speaker Nabih Berri and consistent municipal-level strength in Shia areas alongside Hezbollah allies. Key differentiators include sectarian alliances, expatriate voting rules, and potential returns by groups like the Future Movement, while ongoing hostilities, coalition negotiations, and security conditions could consolidate or shift support before the rescheduled vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$667,854วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, driven by parliament's March extension of its mandate amid intensified Israel-Hezbollah conflict and widespread displacement, has left the field highly fragmented with no dominant contender. This uncertainty keeps implied probabilities low across parties, with Amal Movement edging slightly ahead due to its institutional role under Speaker Nabih Berri and consistent municipal-level strength in Shia areas alongside Hezbollah allies. Key differentiators include sectarian alliances, expatriate voting rules, and potential returns by groups like the Future Movement, while ongoing hostilities, coalition negotiations, and security conditions could consolidate or shift support before the rescheduled vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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