**Forecast uncertainty around cloud cover, showers, and boundary-layer mixing is keeping trader probabilities balanced across minimum temperature thresholds for Hong Kong on August 28.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a daily range of roughly 28–33 °C, with the minimum most likely near 28 °C under west-to-southwest flow of 3–4, partly cloudy skies, and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Model spreads arise from variable shower timing and intensity: heavier overnight rain can enhance evaporative cooling and lower the minimum toward 26–27 °C, while clearer intervals allow greater radiative cooling or warmer advection that holds the low near 28–29 °C. The developing El Niño backdrop favors above-normal warmth overall, yet the 48-hour window remains sensitive to small shifts in low-level moisture and wind shear that alter the diurnal temperature range. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin are the key near-term catalysts.