**Forecast guidance for Wellington, New Zealand, consistently points to a daily maximum near 15°C on August 26, with limited upside potential that explains the market’s strong tilt toward 15–16°C outcomes.** Official MetService and Met Office runs show 15°C as the most likely high under northwesterly flow and a few showers, while climatological August averages sit near 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average or slightly above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through late August, consistent with a transition from earlier polar-air outbreaks to milder, more settled conditions under building high pressure. Model consensus remains tight around 14–16°C, with only modest ensemble spread that could allow a brief 16°C reading if daytime heating exceeds expectations or if the warmest air arrives slightly earlier than currently timed. Lower probabilities on 17°C+ or 14°C and below reflect the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range mid-latitude winter forecasts this close to the event. Traders appear to be pricing a small but non-negligible chance that the final observed maximum edges into the upper half of the forecast range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
16°C 64%
15°C 20%
17°C 11%
14°C 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
20%
16°C
64%
17°C
11%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 64%
15°C 20%
17°C 11%
14°C 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$1,332 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$289 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$632 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$239 ปริมาณ
<1%
14°C
$455 ปริมาณ
2%
15°C
$1,830 ปริมาณ
20%
16°C
$2,471 ปริมาณ
64%
17°C
$972 ปริมาณ
11%
18°C
$380 ปริมาณ
2%
19°C
$197 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C or higher
$269 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast guidance for Wellington, New Zealand, consistently points to a daily maximum near 15°C on August 26, with limited upside potential that explains the market’s strong tilt toward 15–16°C outcomes.** Official MetService and Met Office runs show 15°C as the most likely high under northwesterly flow and a few showers, while climatological August averages sit near 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average or slightly above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through late August, consistent with a transition from earlier polar-air outbreaks to milder, more settled conditions under building high pressure.
Model consensus remains tight around 14–16°C, with only modest ensemble spread that could allow a brief 16°C reading if daytime heating exceeds expectations or if the warmest air arrives slightly earlier than currently timed. Lower probabilities on 17°C+ or 14°C and below reflect the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range mid-latitude winter forecasts this close to the event. Traders appear to be pricing a small but non-negligible chance that the final observed maximum edges into the upper half of the forecast range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,065วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast guidance for Wellington, New Zealand, consistently points to a daily maximum near 15°C on August 26, with limited upside potential that explains the market’s strong tilt toward 15–16°C outcomes.** Official MetService and Met Office runs show 15°C as the most likely high under northwesterly flow and a few showers, while climatological August averages sit near 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average or slightly above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through late August, consistent with a transition from earlier polar-air outbreaks to milder, more settled conditions under building high pressure.
Model consensus remains tight around 14–16°C, with only modest ensemble spread that could allow a brief 16°C reading if daytime heating exceeds expectations or if the warmest air arrives slightly earlier than currently timed. Lower probabilities on 17°C+ or 14°C and below reflect the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range mid-latitude winter forecasts this close to the event. Traders appear to be pricing a small but non-negligible chance that the final observed maximum edges into the upper half of the forecast range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,065วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast guidance for Wellington, New Zealand, consistently points to a daily maximum near 15°C on August 26, with limited upside potential that explains the market’s strong tilt toward 15–16°C outcomes.** Official MetService and Met Office runs show 15°C as the most likely high under northwesterly flow and a few showers, while climatological August averages sit near 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average or slightly above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through late August, consistent with a transition from earlier polar-air outbreaks to milder, more settled conditions under building high pressure. Model consensus remains tight around 14–16°C, with only modest ensemble spread that could allow a brief 16°C reading if daytime heating exceeds expectations or if the warmest air arrives slightly earlier than currently timed. Lower probabilities on 17°C+ or 14°C and below reflect the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range mid-latitude winter forecasts this close to the event. Traders appear to be pricing a small but non-negligible chance that the final observed maximum edges into the upper half of the forecast range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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