**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by nearby Typhoon Saudel, is the dominant driver capping Manila’s August 26 maximum temperatures near 29–30 °C.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s across Metro Manila on the 26th, limiting surface heating despite the climatological August average high of ~31 °C. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with daily maxima holding at 30–31 °C amid similar monsoon conditions. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–32 °C reflects trader awareness of residual uncertainty: brief breaks in cloud cover or delayed convective timing could allow a brief spike to 32 °C, while heavier or earlier rain would favor 30 °C or lower. No major model divergence or rapid system evolution is indicated within the 48-hour window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Manila on August 26?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 26?
32°C 32%
31°C 29%
30°C 16%
33°C 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
9%
30°C
16%
31°C
29%
32°C
32%
33°C
14%
34°C
8%
35°C
9%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 32%
31°C 29%
30°C 16%
33°C 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
26°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$41 ปริมาณ
5%
29°C
$20 ปริมาณ
9%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
31°C
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
32°C
$72 ปริมาณ
32%
33°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
34°C
$0 ปริมาณ
8%
35°C
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
36°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by nearby Typhoon Saudel, is the dominant driver capping Manila’s August 26 maximum temperatures near 29–30 °C.**
Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s across Metro Manila on the 26th, limiting surface heating despite the climatological August average high of ~31 °C. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with daily maxima holding at 30–31 °C amid similar monsoon conditions. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–32 °C reflects trader awareness of residual uncertainty: brief breaks in cloud cover or delayed convective timing could allow a brief spike to 32 °C, while heavier or earlier rain would favor 30 °C or lower. No major model divergence or rapid system evolution is indicated within the 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$133วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by nearby Typhoon Saudel, is the dominant driver capping Manila’s August 26 maximum temperatures near 29–30 °C.**
Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s across Metro Manila on the 26th, limiting surface heating despite the climatological August average high of ~31 °C. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with daily maxima holding at 30–31 °C amid similar monsoon conditions. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–32 °C reflects trader awareness of residual uncertainty: brief breaks in cloud cover or delayed convective timing could allow a brief spike to 32 °C, while heavier or earlier rain would favor 30 °C or lower. No major model divergence or rapid system evolution is indicated within the 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$133วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, enhanced by nearby Typhoon Saudel, is the dominant driver capping Manila’s August 26 maximum temperatures near 29–30 °C.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s across Metro Manila on the 26th, limiting surface heating despite the climatological August average high of ~31 °C. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with daily maxima holding at 30–31 °C amid similar monsoon conditions. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–32 °C reflects trader awareness of residual uncertainty: brief breaks in cloud cover or delayed convective timing could allow a brief spike to 32 °C, while heavier or earlier rain would favor 30 °C or lower. No major model divergence or rapid system evolution is indicated within the 48-hour window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย