Trader consensus around 26–30°C for Paris’s August 26 high reflects substantial short-range forecast uncertainty typical two days ahead, with European ensemble models showing comparable probabilities across that range. Primary drivers include variable Atlantic ridging, potential for afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers, and local wind patterns that modulate urban heat retention. Historical late-August climatology places Paris daily maxima near 25–27°C, so the market-implied distribution centers slightly above average while assigning low odds below 25°C or above 30°C. Model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France are expected to converge or diverge further with the next 12–24 hour updates, directly influencing resolution thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Paris on August 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 26?
28°C 36%
29°C 32%
27°C 18%
30°C 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
3%
24°C
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
11%
27°C
18%
28°C
36%
29°C
32%
30°C
14%
31°C
7%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
6%
28°C 36%
29°C 32%
27°C 18%
30°C 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
28°C
$8 ปริมาณ
36%
29°C
$12 ปริมาณ
32%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
31°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
32°C
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
33°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 26–30°C for Paris’s August 26 high reflects substantial short-range forecast uncertainty typical two days ahead, with European ensemble models showing comparable probabilities across that range. Primary drivers include variable Atlantic ridging, potential for afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers, and local wind patterns that modulate urban heat retention. Historical late-August climatology places Paris daily maxima near 25–27°C, so the market-implied distribution centers slightly above average while assigning low odds below 25°C or above 30°C. Model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France are expected to converge or diverge further with the next 12–24 hour updates, directly influencing resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 26–30°C for Paris’s August 26 high reflects substantial short-range forecast uncertainty typical two days ahead, with European ensemble models showing comparable probabilities across that range. Primary drivers include variable Atlantic ridging, potential for afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers, and local wind patterns that modulate urban heat retention. Historical late-August climatology places Paris daily maxima near 25–27°C, so the market-implied distribution centers slightly above average while assigning low odds below 25°C or above 30°C. Model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France are expected to converge or diverge further with the next 12–24 hour updates, directly influencing resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 26–30°C for Paris’s August 26 high reflects substantial short-range forecast uncertainty typical two days ahead, with European ensemble models showing comparable probabilities across that range. Primary drivers include variable Atlantic ridging, potential for afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers, and local wind patterns that modulate urban heat retention. Historical late-August climatology places Paris daily maxima near 25–27°C, so the market-implied distribution centers slightly above average while assigning low odds below 25°C or above 30°C. Model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France are expected to converge or diverge further with the next 12–24 hour updates, directly influencing resolution thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย