Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions Houston's overnight low for September 4 in the mid-to-upper 70s, aligning with the market's leading 78-79°F outcome at 40% implied probability. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 75°F, and extensive cloud cover from scattered showers are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling below seasonal norms of roughly 75°F. While a stronger cold front or clearer skies could push readings into the low 70s or below—supporting the 30% chance assigned to 69°F or colder—current steering patterns and Gulf moisture favor the warmer scenario. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Houston on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 4?
88°F or higher 85%
69°F or below 83%
86-87°F 48%
70-71°F 45%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
83%
70-71°F
45%
72-73°F
44%
74-75°F
42%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
42%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
43%
84-85°F
44%
86-87°F
48%
88°F or higher
85%
88°F or higher 85%
69°F or below 83%
86-87°F 48%
70-71°F 45%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
83%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
45%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
78-79°F
$6 ปริมาณ
42%
80-81°F
$0 ปริมาณ
32%
82-83°F
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
84-85°F
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
86-87°F
$0 ปริมาณ
48%
88°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions Houston's overnight low for September 4 in the mid-to-upper 70s, aligning with the market's leading 78-79°F outcome at 40% implied probability. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 75°F, and extensive cloud cover from scattered showers are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling below seasonal norms of roughly 75°F. While a stronger cold front or clearer skies could push readings into the low 70s or below—supporting the 30% chance assigned to 69°F or colder—current steering patterns and Gulf moisture favor the warmer scenario. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions Houston's overnight low for September 4 in the mid-to-upper 70s, aligning with the market's leading 78-79°F outcome at 40% implied probability. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 75°F, and extensive cloud cover from scattered showers are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling below seasonal norms of roughly 75°F. While a stronger cold front or clearer skies could push readings into the low 70s or below—supporting the 30% chance assigned to 69°F or colder—current steering patterns and Gulf moisture favor the warmer scenario. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions Houston's overnight low for September 4 in the mid-to-upper 70s, aligning with the market's leading 78-79°F outcome at 40% implied probability. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 75°F, and extensive cloud cover from scattered showers are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling below seasonal norms of roughly 75°F. While a stronger cold front or clearer skies could push readings into the low 70s or below—supporting the 30% chance assigned to 69°F or colder—current steering patterns and Gulf moisture favor the warmer scenario. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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