**Current forecast models and atmospheric conditions are driving the market's 50% implied probability on a Madrid minimum of 13°C or below for September 23.** Clear to mostly clear skies and lighter winds overnight are expected to enhance radiative cooling, allowing temperatures to drop more than in recent warmer nights. Historical September averages place the typical low near 14–15°C, with occasional dips below 13°C under similar synoptic patterns, while 2026 observations already include a 13.2°C reading earlier in the month. Trader consensus appears anchored in these cooling signals and model consensus rather than the warmer ensemble means around 16–20°C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
13°C or below 100%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
16°C 38%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
100%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
38%
17°C
38%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C
38%
22°C
38%
23°C or higher
2%
13°C or below 100%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
16°C 38%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
100%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
16°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
17°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
18°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
19°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
23°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models and atmospheric conditions are driving the market's 50% implied probability on a Madrid minimum of 13°C or below for September 23.** Clear to mostly clear skies and lighter winds overnight are expected to enhance radiative cooling, allowing temperatures to drop more than in recent warmer nights. Historical September averages place the typical low near 14–15°C, with occasional dips below 13°C under similar synoptic patterns, while 2026 observations already include a 13.2°C reading earlier in the month. Trader consensus appears anchored in these cooling signals and model consensus rather than the warmer ensemble means around 16–20°C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models and atmospheric conditions are driving the market's 50% implied probability on a Madrid minimum of 13°C or below for September 23.** Clear to mostly clear skies and lighter winds overnight are expected to enhance radiative cooling, allowing temperatures to drop more than in recent warmer nights. Historical September averages place the typical low near 14–15°C, with occasional dips below 13°C under similar synoptic patterns, while 2026 observations already include a 13.2°C reading earlier in the month. Trader consensus appears anchored in these cooling signals and model consensus rather than the warmer ensemble means around 16–20°C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models and atmospheric conditions are driving the market's 50% implied probability on a Madrid minimum of 13°C or below for September 23.** Clear to mostly clear skies and lighter winds overnight are expected to enhance radiative cooling, allowing temperatures to drop more than in recent warmer nights. Historical September averages place the typical low near 14–15°C, with occasional dips below 13°C under similar synoptic patterns, while 2026 observations already include a 13.2°C reading earlier in the month. Trader consensus appears anchored in these cooling signals and model consensus rather than the warmer ensemble means around 16–20°C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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