**Trader sentiment for Miami's lowest temperature on August 3, 2026, centers on the 80–81°F range (38.5% implied probability) because current National Weather Service and ensemble guidance point to an overnight low near 80°F under typical early-August subtropical conditions.** Sea-surface temperatures around 85°F limit radiative cooling, while light winds, high humidity, and partly cloudy skies reduce diurnal temperature drops. This climatological baseline—consistent with historical August averages of 78–82°F and an 80°F mean low—positions 78–79°F (21.5%) and 82–83°F (13.5%) as secondary outcomes. No significant cold-air advection, frontal passages, or tropical systems are expected to alter the pattern in the next 24–48 hours, keeping probabilities concentrated in the narrow 78–83°F window. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.