Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on August 1?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 1?
72-73°F 33%
70-71°F 27%
74-75°F 24%
68-69°F 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
33%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
4%
80°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 33%
70-71°F 27%
74-75°F 24%
68-69°F 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
61°F or below
$31 ปริมาณ
1%
62-63°F
$25 ปริมาณ
2%
64-65°F
$146 ปริมาณ
2%
66-67°F
$0 ปริมาณ
8%
68-69°F
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
76-77°F
$7 ปริมาณ
10%
78-79°F
$125 ปริมาณ
4%
80°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$334วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$334วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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