**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 27 most likely in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 26°C and 27°C (combined ~58% implied probability).** Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble outputs highlight persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected overnight, which limit radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 24–25°C). This reduces the typical nocturnal temperature drop compared with clearer August nights. Light northeasterly or southeasterly winds and the urban heat-island effect in the Tokyo metro area further support elevated minimums around 25–27°C. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed overnight lows near 24–26°C amid comparable moisture and instability. The 25°C outcome (16%) remains plausible if clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling, while extremes below 24°C or at/above 28°C carry low probability given model consensus and current atmospheric moisture. New high-resolution model runs and updated JMA briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could refine resolution probabilities before the overnight period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
26°C 30%
27°C 29%
25°C 16%
28°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 27, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
16%
26°C
30%
27°C
29%
28°C
11%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 30%
27°C 29%
25°C 16%
28°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 27, 2026
21°C or below
$113 ปริมาณ
1%
22°C
$13 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$71 ปริมาณ
1%
24°C
$71 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$534 ปริมาณ
16%
26°C
$1,306 ปริมาณ
30%
27°C
$513 ปริมาณ
29%
28°C
$288 ปริมาณ
11%
29°C
$149 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$139 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C or higher
$144 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 27 most likely in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 26°C and 27°C (combined ~58% implied probability).**
Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble outputs highlight persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected overnight, which limit radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 24–25°C). This reduces the typical nocturnal temperature drop compared with clearer August nights. Light northeasterly or southeasterly winds and the urban heat-island effect in the Tokyo metro area further support elevated minimums around 25–27°C.
Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed overnight lows near 24–26°C amid comparable moisture and instability. The 25°C outcome (16%) remains plausible if clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling, while extremes below 24°C or at/above 28°C carry low probability given model consensus and current atmospheric moisture. New high-resolution model runs and updated JMA briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could refine resolution probabilities before the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,341วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 27 most likely in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 26°C and 27°C (combined ~58% implied probability).**
Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble outputs highlight persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected overnight, which limit radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 24–25°C). This reduces the typical nocturnal temperature drop compared with clearer August nights. Light northeasterly or southeasterly winds and the urban heat-island effect in the Tokyo metro area further support elevated minimums around 25–27°C.
Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed overnight lows near 24–26°C amid comparable moisture and instability. The 25°C outcome (16%) remains plausible if clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling, while extremes below 24°C or at/above 28°C carry low probability given model consensus and current atmospheric moisture. New high-resolution model runs and updated JMA briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could refine resolution probabilities before the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,341วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 27 most likely in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 26°C and 27°C (combined ~58% implied probability).** Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble outputs highlight persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected overnight, which limit radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 24–25°C). This reduces the typical nocturnal temperature drop compared with clearer August nights. Light northeasterly or southeasterly winds and the urban heat-island effect in the Tokyo metro area further support elevated minimums around 25–27°C. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed overnight lows near 24–26°C amid comparable moisture and instability. The 25°C outcome (16%) remains plausible if clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling, while extremes below 24°C or at/above 28°C carry low probability given model consensus and current atmospheric moisture. New high-resolution model runs and updated JMA briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could refine resolution probabilities before the overnight period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย