Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$47,249 ปริมาณ
$47,249 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$47,249 ปริมาณ
$47,249 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,504 ปริมาณ
97%
Republican Party
$23,745 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$47,249วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$47,249วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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