The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's D+11 Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Democratic hold at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1 contest, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and any general-election challengers lack the profile or resources for a serious contest in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an incumbent scandal, an upset in the Democratic primary producing a weaker nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge within the November 3, 2026 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$40,147 ปริมาณ
$40,147 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$40,147 ปริมาณ
$40,147 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,192 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$19,956 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's D+11 Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Democratic hold at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1 contest, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and any general-election challengers lack the profile or resources for a serious contest in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an incumbent scandal, an upset in the Democratic primary producing a weaker nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge within the November 3, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40,147วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's D+11 Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Democratic hold at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1 contest, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and any general-election challengers lack the profile or resources for a serious contest in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an incumbent scandal, an upset in the Democratic primary producing a weaker nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge within the November 3, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40,147วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's D+11 Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles drive trader consensus toward a Democratic hold at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces limited primary opposition ahead of the September 1 contest, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and any general-election challengers lack the profile or resources for a serious contest in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an incumbent scandal, an upset in the Democratic primary producing a weaker nominee, or an unprecedented national Republican surge within the November 3, 2026 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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