The absence of any congressional legislation restoring induction authority, combined with the Pentagon’s continued preference for an all-volunteer force, underpins the 95.5 percent trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men by December 2026—an administrative update using federal databases that does not restore conscription powers or trigger inductions. Recent developments, including the July 2026 withdrawal of the implementing rule and statements from administration officials that a draft is not part of current plans, have reinforced expectations that no emergency or manpower shortfall will prompt new statutory action before year-end. A draft would still require separate congressional passage, presidential approval, and a national emergency beyond current recruitment trends or ongoing conflicts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5% โอกาส
$531,928 ปริมาณ
$531,928 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
$531,928 ปริมาณ
$531,928 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation restoring induction authority, combined with the Pentagon’s continued preference for an all-volunteer force, underpins the 95.5 percent trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men by December 2026—an administrative update using federal databases that does not restore conscription powers or trigger inductions. Recent developments, including the July 2026 withdrawal of the implementing rule and statements from administration officials that a draft is not part of current plans, have reinforced expectations that no emergency or manpower shortfall will prompt new statutory action before year-end. A draft would still require separate congressional passage, presidential approval, and a national emergency beyond current recruitment trends or ongoing conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$531,928วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation restoring induction authority, combined with the Pentagon’s continued preference for an all-volunteer force, underpins the 95.5 percent trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men by December 2026—an administrative update using federal databases that does not restore conscription powers or trigger inductions. Recent developments, including the July 2026 withdrawal of the implementing rule and statements from administration officials that a draft is not part of current plans, have reinforced expectations that no emergency or manpower shortfall will prompt new statutory action before year-end. A draft would still require separate congressional passage, presidential approval, and a national emergency beyond current recruitment trends or ongoing conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$531,928วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The absence of any congressional legislation restoring induction authority, combined with the Pentagon’s continued preference for an all-volunteer force, underpins the 95.5 percent trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men by December 2026—an administrative update using federal databases that does not restore conscription powers or trigger inductions. Recent developments, including the July 2026 withdrawal of the implementing rule and statements from administration officials that a draft is not part of current plans, have reinforced expectations that no emergency or manpower shortfall will prompt new statutory action before year-end. A draft would still require separate congressional passage, presidential approval, and a national emergency beyond current recruitment trends or ongoing conflicts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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