The 95.5% trader consensus against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act, despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without conscription, and recent developments—including the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran—have prompted only preparatory measures like registration streamlining and simulation planning by the Selective Service System, not induction authority. Reinstating a draft would require a declared national emergency exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, along with legislative approval and appropriations. Realistic shifts remain possible if major escalations in ongoing conflicts or unforeseen crises overwhelm current force levels before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5% โอกาส
$517,755 ปริมาณ
$517,755 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
$517,755 ปริมาณ
$517,755 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 95.5% trader consensus against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act, despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without conscription, and recent developments—including the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran—have prompted only preparatory measures like registration streamlining and simulation planning by the Selective Service System, not induction authority. Reinstating a draft would require a declared national emergency exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, along with legislative approval and appropriations. Realistic shifts remain possible if major escalations in ongoing conflicts or unforeseen crises overwhelm current force levels before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$517,755วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 95.5% trader consensus against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act, despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without conscription, and recent developments—including the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran—have prompted only preparatory measures like registration streamlining and simulation planning by the Selective Service System, not induction authority. Reinstating a draft would require a declared national emergency exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, along with legislative approval and appropriations. Realistic shifts remain possible if major escalations in ongoing conflicts or unforeseen crises overwhelm current force levels before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$517,755วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 95.5% trader consensus against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act, despite the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting in December. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without conscription, and recent developments—including the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran—have prompted only preparatory measures like registration streamlining and simulation planning by the Selective Service System, not induction authority. Reinstating a draft would require a declared national emergency exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, along with legislative approval and appropriations. Realistic shifts remain possible if major escalations in ongoing conflicts or unforeseen crises overwhelm current force levels before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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