Persistent Iranian targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with UKMTO reporting multiple projectile and drone strikes in September 2026, including incidents on 12, 15, and 17 September. These attacks, often linked to enforcement of approved routes by IRGC forces, have kept transits sharply below baseline levels, with many operators opting for dark (AIS-off) passages or avoiding the waterway entirely. Elevated war-risk premiums and reduced flows have contributed to volatility in Brent crude and WTI benchmarks, as the strait handles a significant share of global oil exports. Traders are focused on upcoming U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals and any escalation in military activity that could alter attack frequency or route compliance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วShipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
September 18
29%
September 19
36%
September 20
33%
September 21
35%
September 22
32%
September 23
41%
September 24
30%
September 25
27%
September 26
27%
September 27
28%
September 28
27%
September 29
44%
September 30
28%
$2,676 ปริมาณ
September 18
$60 ปริมาณ
29%
September 19
$92 ปริมาณ
36%
September 20
$222 ปริมาณ
33%
September 21
$1,118 ปริมาณ
35%
September 22
$654 ปริมาณ
32%
September 23
$161 ปริมาณ
41%
September 24
$0 ปริมาณ
30%
September 25
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
September 26
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
September 27
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
September 28
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
September 29
$370 ปริมาณ
44%
September 30
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.Persistent Iranian targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with UKMTO reporting multiple projectile and drone strikes in September 2026, including incidents on 12, 15, and 17 September. These attacks, often linked to enforcement of approved routes by IRGC forces, have kept transits sharply below baseline levels, with many operators opting for dark (AIS-off) passages or avoiding the waterway entirely. Elevated war-risk premiums and reduced flows have contributed to volatility in Brent crude and WTI benchmarks, as the strait handles a significant share of global oil exports. Traders are focused on upcoming U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals and any escalation in military activity that could alter attack frequency or route compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,676วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.Persistent Iranian targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with UKMTO reporting multiple projectile and drone strikes in September 2026, including incidents on 12, 15, and 17 September. These attacks, often linked to enforcement of approved routes by IRGC forces, have kept transits sharply below baseline levels, with many operators opting for dark (AIS-off) passages or avoiding the waterway entirely. Elevated war-risk premiums and reduced flows have contributed to volatility in Brent crude and WTI benchmarks, as the strait handles a significant share of global oil exports. Traders are focused on upcoming U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals and any escalation in military activity that could alter attack frequency or route compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,676วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Persistent Iranian targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with UKMTO reporting multiple projectile and drone strikes in September 2026, including incidents on 12, 15, and 17 September. These attacks, often linked to enforcement of approved routes by IRGC forces, have kept transits sharply below baseline levels, with many operators opting for dark (AIS-off) passages or avoiding the waterway entirely. Elevated war-risk premiums and reduced flows have contributed to volatility in Brent crude and WTI benchmarks, as the strait handles a significant share of global oil exports. Traders are focused on upcoming U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals and any escalation in military activity that could alter attack frequency or route compliance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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