**Russia’s incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast continue to shape trader views on whether forces will secure the specified intersection in Stavky by the market’s resolution date.** ISW mapping serves as the primary resolution source, requiring confirmed red-shaded control or negotiated de facto transfer. Russian units have conducted small-scale infiltrations and claimed localized gains near Stavky and nearby settlements, yet Ukrainian forces report destroying such groups and maintain that full capture has not occurred. Broader Russian pressure targets the “fortress belt” around Kostiantynivka, where grinding assaults and artillery dominance produce slow territorial shifts at high cost. Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian logistics and air assets, combined with resilient defensive lines, have limited the pace of any push toward smaller outlying points like Stavky. Markets for nearer deadlines have reflected low single-digit to low-20s percent implied probabilities for capture, consistent with the pattern of marginal, high-casualty progress rather than rapid breakthroughs. Scheduled developments include ongoing ISW updates and any escalation or de-escalation signals in the Donbas theater that could alter control assessments before the cutoff.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Russia enter Stavky by...?
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
$34,964 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
18%
$34,964 ปริมาณ
September 30
$17,760 ปริมาณ
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russia’s incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast continue to shape trader views on whether forces will secure the specified intersection in Stavky by the market’s resolution date.**
ISW mapping serves as the primary resolution source, requiring confirmed red-shaded control or negotiated de facto transfer. Russian units have conducted small-scale infiltrations and claimed localized gains near Stavky and nearby settlements, yet Ukrainian forces report destroying such groups and maintain that full capture has not occurred. Broader Russian pressure targets the “fortress belt” around Kostiantynivka, where grinding assaults and artillery dominance produce slow territorial shifts at high cost. Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian logistics and air assets, combined with resilient defensive lines, have limited the pace of any push toward smaller outlying points like Stavky. Markets for nearer deadlines have reflected low single-digit to low-20s percent implied probabilities for capture, consistent with the pattern of marginal, high-casualty progress rather than rapid breakthroughs. Scheduled developments include ongoing ISW updates and any escalation or de-escalation signals in the Donbas theater that could alter control assessments before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 24, 2026, 9:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,964วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 24, 2026, 9:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russia’s incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast continue to shape trader views on whether forces will secure the specified intersection in Stavky by the market’s resolution date.**
ISW mapping serves as the primary resolution source, requiring confirmed red-shaded control or negotiated de facto transfer. Russian units have conducted small-scale infiltrations and claimed localized gains near Stavky and nearby settlements, yet Ukrainian forces report destroying such groups and maintain that full capture has not occurred. Broader Russian pressure targets the “fortress belt” around Kostiantynivka, where grinding assaults and artillery dominance produce slow territorial shifts at high cost. Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian logistics and air assets, combined with resilient defensive lines, have limited the pace of any push toward smaller outlying points like Stavky. Markets for nearer deadlines have reflected low single-digit to low-20s percent implied probabilities for capture, consistent with the pattern of marginal, high-casualty progress rather than rapid breakthroughs. Scheduled developments include ongoing ISW updates and any escalation or de-escalation signals in the Donbas theater that could alter control assessments before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,964วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 24, 2026, 9:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Russia’s incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast continue to shape trader views on whether forces will secure the specified intersection in Stavky by the market’s resolution date.** ISW mapping serves as the primary resolution source, requiring confirmed red-shaded control or negotiated de facto transfer. Russian units have conducted small-scale infiltrations and claimed localized gains near Stavky and nearby settlements, yet Ukrainian forces report destroying such groups and maintain that full capture has not occurred. Broader Russian pressure targets the “fortress belt” around Kostiantynivka, where grinding assaults and artillery dominance produce slow territorial shifts at high cost. Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian logistics and air assets, combined with resilient defensive lines, have limited the pace of any push toward smaller outlying points like Stavky. Markets for nearer deadlines have reflected low single-digit to low-20s percent implied probabilities for capture, consistent with the pattern of marginal, high-casualty progress rather than rapid breakthroughs. Scheduled developments include ongoing ISW updates and any escalation or de-escalation signals in the Donbas theater that could alter control assessments before the cutoff.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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