Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced through repeated elite purges and the absence of any designated successor, underpins trader consensus that he will remain in office through the end of 2026. With the 21st Party Congress scheduled for late 2027, recent provincial reshuffles and personnel appointments favor loyalists aligned with his priorities on national security and centralized control, while his active diplomatic role at the September 2026 SCO summit signals continuity. The informal “seven up, eight down” norm applies mainly to other Politburo Standing Committee members, leaving Xi’s position structurally insulated. Although health events or sudden elite realignments could theoretically intervene in the narrow remaining window, the lack of visible internal contestation or policy reversals sustains the overwhelming probability assigned to no change before 2027.