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Politika·Pandaigdigang Halalan

Farrer By-Election Winner

Market icon
Politika·Pandaigdigang Halalan

Farrer By-Election Winner

Michelle Milthorpe 54%

David Farley 43%

Raissa Butkowski 3.0%

Rebecca Scriven 1.0%

Polymarket

$139,158 Vol.

Michelle Milthorpe 54%

David Farley 43%

Raissa Butkowski 3.0%

Rebecca Scriven 1.0%

Polymarket

$139,158 Vol.

Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? icon

Michelle Milthorpe

$26,898 Vol.

54%

Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? icon

David Farley

$90 Vol.

43%

Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? icon

Raissa Butkowski

$23 Vol.

3%

Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? icon

Rebecca Scriven

$93,112 Vol.

1%

Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? icon

Helen Dalton

$19,035 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight preferential voting contest for the May 9 Farrer by-election, with independent Michelle Milthorpe leading at 54% over One Nation's David Farley at 43%, driven by her strong 2025 primary showing and recent crossbench endorsements from Bob Katter, David Pocock, and Helen Haines. Farley's campaign, centered on opposing Murray-Darling Basin water buybacks to appeal to irrigators, has faced headwinds from a contentious April 12 Facebook post attacking Milthorpe and earlier social media controversies criticizing local cities like Albury. The Liberal (Raissa Butkowski at 3%) and Nationals split fragments the conservative vote, with preferences pivotal; a key candidates' debate looms April 30 ahead of early voting.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$139,158
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 9, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight preferential voting contest for the May 9 Farrer by-election, with independent Michelle Milthorpe leading at 54% over One Nation's David Farley at 43%, driven by her strong 2025 primary showing and recent crossbench endorsements from Bob Katter, David Pocock, and Helen Haines. Farley's campaign, centered on opposing Murray-Darling Basin water buybacks to appeal to irrigators, has faced headwinds from a contentious April 12 Facebook post attacking Milthorpe and earlier social media controversies criticizing local cities like Albury. The Liberal (Raissa Butkowski at 3%) and Nationals split fragments the conservative vote, with preferences pivotal; a key candidates' debate looms April 30 ahead of early voting.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$139,158
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 9, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Farrer By-Election Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Michelle Milthorpe" sa 54%, sinusundan ng "David Farley" sa 43%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 54¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 54% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Farrer By-Election Winner" ay naka-generate ng $139.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 17, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Farrer By-Election Winner," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Farrer By-Election Winner" ay "Michelle Milthorpe" sa 54%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 54% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "David Farley" sa 43%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Farrer By-Election Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.