The military junta's firm control over the transitional process following the November 2025 coup has established a commanding lead for passage of the constitutional referendum scheduled for August 30, 2026. The draft shifts Guinea-Bissau to a presidential system, granting the executive authority to appoint the prime minister, form the government, and dissolve parliament. Recent junta decrees have locked in the timeline and single-question format, while opposition calls for postponement on inclusivity grounds have not disrupted preparations. Traders price the "passes" outcome at 92.5 percent based on the ruling authorities' institutional dominance and limited avenues for effective resistance. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include successful legal or regional interventions delaying the vote, major security disruptions before polling, or unexpectedly strong coordinated boycotts affecting turnout and perceived legitimacy.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePasses 92%
Fails 6.9%
No Referendum in 2026 5%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
92%
Fails
7%
No Referendum in 2026
5%
Passes 92%
Fails 6.9%
No Referendum in 2026 5%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
$777 Vol.
92%
Fails
$264 Vol.
7%
No Referendum in 2026
$665 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).The military junta's firm control over the transitional process following the November 2025 coup has established a commanding lead for passage of the constitutional referendum scheduled for August 30, 2026. The draft shifts Guinea-Bissau to a presidential system, granting the executive authority to appoint the prime minister, form the government, and dissolve parliament. Recent junta decrees have locked in the timeline and single-question format, while opposition calls for postponement on inclusivity grounds have not disrupted preparations. Traders price the "passes" outcome at 92.5 percent based on the ruling authorities' institutional dominance and limited avenues for effective resistance. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include successful legal or regional interventions delaying the vote, major security disruptions before polling, or unexpectedly strong coordinated boycotts affecting turnout and perceived legitimacy.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,705Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).The military junta's firm control over the transitional process following the November 2025 coup has established a commanding lead for passage of the constitutional referendum scheduled for August 30, 2026. The draft shifts Guinea-Bissau to a presidential system, granting the executive authority to appoint the prime minister, form the government, and dissolve parliament. Recent junta decrees have locked in the timeline and single-question format, while opposition calls for postponement on inclusivity grounds have not disrupted preparations. Traders price the "passes" outcome at 92.5 percent based on the ruling authorities' institutional dominance and limited avenues for effective resistance. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include successful legal or regional interventions delaying the vote, major security disruptions before polling, or unexpectedly strong coordinated boycotts affecting turnout and perceived legitimacy.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Volume
$1,705Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The military junta's firm control over the transitional process following the November 2025 coup has established a commanding lead for passage of the constitutional referendum scheduled for August 30, 2026. The draft shifts Guinea-Bissau to a presidential system, granting the executive authority to appoint the prime minister, form the government, and dissolve parliament. Recent junta decrees have locked in the timeline and single-question format, while opposition calls for postponement on inclusivity grounds have not disrupted preparations. Traders price the "passes" outcome at 92.5 percent based on the ruling authorities' institutional dominance and limited avenues for effective resistance. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include successful legal or regional interventions delaying the vote, major security disruptions before polling, or unexpectedly strong coordinated boycotts affecting turnout and perceived legitimacy.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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