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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 20.8%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 2.5%

Baciro Djá 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,411 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 20.8%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 2.5%

Baciro Djá 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,411 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,257 Vol.

21%

José Mário Vaz

$22,291 Vol.

3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$91,004 Vol.

9%

Baciro Djá

$14,548 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,352 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$25,661 Vol.

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

1%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader consensus in this fragmented field following his strong performance and claimed victory in the annulled November 2025 presidential vote, where he drew backing from the PAI–Terra Ranka alliance and elements of the PAIGC opposition. The November 2025 military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, and scheduled fresh elections for December 2026 has lowered Embaló’s odds while elevating uncertainty around military influence, opposition coordination, and the impact of the August 2026 constitutional referendum that expanded presidential powers and imposed a five-year residency requirement. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including José Mário Vaz and Baciro Djá, further split support in a system where consolidation behind one contender hinges on alliances, turnout patterns, and transitional authorities’ stance ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,411
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 23, 2025
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader consensus in this fragmented field following his strong performance and claimed victory in the annulled November 2025 presidential vote, where he drew backing from the PAI–Terra Ranka alliance and elements of the PAIGC opposition. The November 2025 military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, and scheduled fresh elections for December 2026 has lowered Embaló’s odds while elevating uncertainty around military influence, opposition coordination, and the impact of the August 2026 constitutional referendum that expanded presidential powers and imposed a five-year residency requirement. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including José Mário Vaz and Baciro Djá, further split support in a system where consolidation behind one contender hinges on alliances, turnout patterns, and transitional authorities’ stance ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,411
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 23, 2025
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 12 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Fernando Dias da Costa" sa 21%, sinusundan ng "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" sa 9%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 21¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 21% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" ay naka-generate ng $339.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 6, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election," i-browse ang 12 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" ay "Fernando Dias da Costa" sa 21%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 21% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" sa 9%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.