Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a post-frontal airmass with northeast flow and clearing skies after Wednesday’s showers, supporting a Thursday high near 74°F for Chicago. This places the most likely outcome in the 74–77°F range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 76–77°F and 78–79°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of the onshore breeze off Lake Michigan, which can cap peak readings, versus any residual mixing or slight warm advection that could push readings a degree or two higher. Historical September climatology shows an average high of 78°F, but the current setup favors values near or slightly below that baseline. Updated model runs and the final NWS forecast discussion remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Chicago on September 10?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 10?
76-77°F 43%
78-79°F 40%
74-75°F 13%
80-81°F 6%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
43%
78-79°F
40%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 43%
78-79°F 40%
74-75°F 13%
80-81°F 6%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
$88 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$137 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$22 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$227 Vol.
13%
76-77°F
$702 Vol.
43%
78-79°F
$627 Vol.
40%
80-81°F
$634 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$154 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$42 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$233 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$121 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a post-frontal airmass with northeast flow and clearing skies after Wednesday’s showers, supporting a Thursday high near 74°F for Chicago. This places the most likely outcome in the 74–77°F range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 76–77°F and 78–79°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of the onshore breeze off Lake Michigan, which can cap peak readings, versus any residual mixing or slight warm advection that could push readings a degree or two higher. Historical September climatology shows an average high of 78°F, but the current setup favors values near or slightly below that baseline. Updated model runs and the final NWS forecast discussion remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,986Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a post-frontal airmass with northeast flow and clearing skies after Wednesday’s showers, supporting a Thursday high near 74°F for Chicago. This places the most likely outcome in the 74–77°F range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 76–77°F and 78–79°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of the onshore breeze off Lake Michigan, which can cap peak readings, versus any residual mixing or slight warm advection that could push readings a degree or two higher. Historical September climatology shows an average high of 78°F, but the current setup favors values near or slightly below that baseline. Updated model runs and the final NWS forecast discussion remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,986Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a post-frontal airmass with northeast flow and clearing skies after Wednesday’s showers, supporting a Thursday high near 74°F for Chicago. This places the most likely outcome in the 74–77°F range, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 76–77°F and 78–79°F. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of the onshore breeze off Lake Michigan, which can cap peak readings, versus any residual mixing or slight warm advection that could push readings a degree or two higher. Historical September climatology shows an average high of 78°F, but the current setup favors values near or slightly below that baseline. Updated model runs and the final NWS forecast discussion remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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