Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
39°C 59%
38°C 39%
40°C 3%
36°C 2%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
39%
39°C
59%
40°C
3%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
38°C 39%
40°C 3%
36°C 2%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
$137 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$108 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$143 Vol.
2%
37°C
$182 Vol.
2%
38°C
$391 Vol.
39%
39°C
$397 Vol.
59%
40°C
$197 Vol.
3%
41°C
$124 Vol.
2%
42°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$137 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,001Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,001Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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