The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32°C and 33°C stem from numerical weather model consensus projecting a daily maximum in that narrow range under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions. Westerly sea breezes from the Mediterranean are expected to limit afternoon heating while partly cloudy skies reduce peak insolation, keeping values near the seasonal baseline of roughly 30–31°C. Minor forecast differences arise from uncertainties in exact cloud timing, boundary-layer humidity, and localized wind shifts that can alter the observed high by 1°C at the official station. No significant synoptic changes are anticipated before resolution, leaving traders focused on the next model runs and real-time observations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 22?
32°C 50%
33°C 47%
31°C 4%
34°C 3%
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
50%
33°C
47%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 50%
33°C 47%
31°C 4%
34°C 3%
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
50%
33°C
47%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32°C and 33°C stem from numerical weather model consensus projecting a daily maximum in that narrow range under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions. Westerly sea breezes from the Mediterranean are expected to limit afternoon heating while partly cloudy skies reduce peak insolation, keeping values near the seasonal baseline of roughly 30–31°C. Minor forecast differences arise from uncertainties in exact cloud timing, boundary-layer humidity, and localized wind shifts that can alter the observed high by 1°C at the official station. No significant synoptic changes are anticipated before resolution, leaving traders focused on the next model runs and real-time observations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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